Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 2.268533 2.401694 2.546608 2.717647 2.916238 3.142521 3.424447
2025-08-31 2.123354 2.290947 2.481611 2.718768 3.012392 3.374049 3.871768
2025-09-07 2.031821 2.222263 2.446118 2.736072 3.114435 3.613517 4.369981
2025-09-14 1.896692 2.088244 2.317060 2.619606 3.025526 3.581795 4.475322
2025-09-21 1.849374 2.055176 2.306708 2.649432 3.128947 3.826983 5.064973
2025-09-28 1.771571 1.978830 2.235392 2.591009 3.100998 3.871586 5.331756
2025-10-05 1.756216 1.978935 2.260772 2.663435 3.267551 4.248273 6.387059
2025-10-12 1.749886 1.989345 2.299285 2.756506 3.477597 4.752702 8.137319
2025-10-19 1.705245 1.947181 2.263913 2.738943 3.508425 4.937118 9.261343
2025-10-26 1.672013 1.918246 2.244566 2.742892 3.574681 5.210454 11.135920
2025-11-02 1.630665 1.876564 2.205066 2.712792 3.577784 5.350183 12.816496
2025-11-09 1.586041 1.828765 2.154683 2.662320 3.538780 5.385075 14.120183
2025-11-16 1.547404 1.790244 2.119228 2.638651 3.557153 5.594145 18.094559
2025-11-23 1.518621 1.763787 2.099360 2.637717 3.617526 5.937570 28.992895
2025-11-30 1.496473 1.745346 2.089813 2.652247 3.709840 6.421134 147.409286
2025-12-07 1.441135 1.679165 2.007765 2.542073 3.538991 6.045415 67.503020
2025-12-14 1.426690 1.669331 2.008093 2.568931 3.651783 6.626265 NaN
2025-12-21 1.391141 1.628857 1.961358 2.513481 3.585702 6.577751 NaN
2025-12-28 1.389528 1.635868 1.985559 2.580425 3.792442 7.684519 NaN
2026-01-04 1.392075 1.648703 2.019008 2.666464 4.063363 9.525586 NaN
2026-01-11 1.370191 1.625711 1.996250 2.649622 4.085316 10.117425 NaN
2026-01-18 1.354028 1.610479 1.984898 2.652868 4.158966 11.227831 NaN
2026-01-25 1.331663 1.585620 1.957531 2.624548 4.146493 11.697561 NaN